Analysis
World · Strategic Forecast
Contours of the New World by 2035
Two technology cores, state AI architectures, partial mobilization autarky, and hinge states: what the world order will look like by 2035.
Belarus · Scenario Model
Four Belaruses, or the Search for a Fifth: clouds of features and the zone where they intersect
A thought experiment: reconstructing the goal-setting languages of eight actors. A matrix of candidate words, five formulas for the future, and the fifth Belarus — the intersection "separate + non-aggressive".
Belarus · Negotiation Portfolio
Potash and more: what other "goods" can Lukashenko offer the outside world
Seven negotiation tracks of Minsk — from potash and prisoners to uranium and a diplomatic platform. A portfolio of assets with a maturity assessment for each module.
Belarus · Sanctions
Potash, sanctions, and transit: is a new architecture of relations forming around Belarus
Six competing models explain different levels of the same process. Verification using open sources: from the potash deal and commodity leverage to the Baltic exchange.
Belarus
Finlandization of Belarus: from a bipolar model to a multi-vector reality
Two analytical frameworks. The classical Finlandization model with 5 forks and 3 scenarios vs. Lukashenko's multi-vector reality with 5 foreign policy vectors.